It may be disheartening that democrats lost the House, but this is not like 1994 or 2010, when republicans won back large majorities that were unbreakable without a midterm blue wave. With Democrats' political prospects over the next two years lightening by the day, they are in a great position to make back their majority in 2024 and possibly make it bigger than it was in 2021-2022.
2024 will a presidential election year, which means the House is going to largely mirror the results of the 2024 presidential election. I'm going to immediately presume Donald Trump is the GOP nominee and Biden is the (both small d and capital-D) democratic nominee, because no blue-chip Democratic politican would be crazy enough to challenge him, and Donald Trump still leads Ron DeSantis in the polls, even after hitting his political rock-bottom in the midterm aftermath. Until there is a cataclysmic event that upends every aspect of our politics, any other scenario goes against the logic of the universe.
Joe Biden will win the popular vote by about 6-7 percent. Why do I say this? First, I think the slow degradation of Trump's support ever since he won in 2016 has a purely linear progression as the craziness and stupidity he emanates gets stronger and stronger, and slowly draws people away from his candidacy. Hillary Clinton won by 2.1%. Joe Biden won by 4.5%. Continue the pattern, and you get a margin of victory of 6.9%.
Second, Democrats underperformed in 2020 because COVID hampered their ground game. Republicans didn't care about COVID and went door-knocking like mad. Unless there is an epidemic of H5N1 - or of some other nasty contagion - that occurs within the next year and a half, the democratic ground-game machine will not be hampered by trying to avoid a deadly disease. They will be much stronger this time, especially in states like Nevada with the Reid Machine.
Third, latino voters will be bluer than they were in 2020, despite what the mainstream media would like you to think. Incumbent presidents do better with latinos than non-incumbents. IT'S A FACT. Sure, Trump might win Floridian Cubans by more than he did 2020. He'll probably win Florida by about 5-6%, versus his 3% victory in 2020. I don't care about Florida. Fuck Florida. It's not a swing state. That would be like someone saying we should care in the year 2024 about how Missouri votes because in 2008, Obama lost the state by 0.1%, and in 2012, Claire McCaskill won against Todd Akin, who already had one foot in the insane asylum. If you take out Florida, Democrats are doing fine with latinos. Every incumbent president in the modern era improves with latinos their second time around. In 1992, George H W Bush did better with latinos than he did in 1988, even though he lost the presidency the second time to Bill Clinton after winning it in a mini-landslide the first time. Obama's popular vote victory was HALVED in 2012 from his 2008 performance, and yet he did better with Latinos the second time. Joe Biden will do the same, and I predict he will win 65%, if not more, of the Latino vote, which is an absolutely secure percentage for a democratic victory in Nevada and Arizona.
Now, with those numbers in mind, here's the 2024 situation map for the House. The democrats will need a net pickup of FIVE seats to get the House (although there might be some special elections that make things slightly different). If Biden wins the popular vote by more than in 2020, take every 2020 result, and expect to make that result bluer by about 1-5%.
Very Vulnerable Republicans:
**Keep in mind that the 2020 "results" of these districts were when these district boundaries didn't exist yet.**
Arizona 1st: David Schweikert. Biden won this district by 1.5%.
Arizona 6th: Juan Ciscomani. Biden won this district by 0.2%.
California 13th: John Duarte. Biden won this district by 11.4%.
California 22nd: David Valadao. Biden won this district by 13.1%.
California 27th: Mike Garcia. Biden won this district by 12.7%.
California 41st: Trump won this district by 1.0%.
California 45th: Michelle Steel. Biden won this district by 6.3%.
Michigan 10th: John James. Trump won this district by 0.7%.
Nebraska 2nd: Don Bacon. Biden won this district (and its 1 electoral vote) by 6.4%.
New Jersey 7th: Tom Kean. Biden won this district by 4.5%.
New York 3rd: George Santos. (If he's even still in Congress, Santos will likely lose his primary, or be forced to move so far to the right that he has no chance in the general.) Biden won this district by 8.5%.
New York 4th: Anthony D'Esposito. Biden won this district by 14.8%.
New York 17th: Mike Lawler: Biden won this district by 10.1%.
New York 19th: Marc Molinaro. Biden won this district by 4.5%.
New York 22nd: Brandon Williams. Biden won this district by 7.6%.
Oregon 5th: Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Biden won this district by 8.9%.
Virginia 2nd: Jean Kiggins. Biden won this district by 3.1%, and the republican is a crazy election denier.
Somewhat vulnerable (but not in the danger zone) Republicans:
Arizona 2nd: Eli Crane, one of the Never-Kevins. Trump won this district by 8.4%.
California 3rd: Kevin Kiley. Trump won this district by 1.9%.
Iowa 1st: Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Trump won this district by 2.9%.
Iowa 2nd: Ashley Hinson. Trump won this district by 4.5%.
Iowa 3rd: Zach Nunn. Trump won this district by 0.4%.
Colorado 3rd: Lauren Boebert: Final result in 2022 will likely be less than 100 vote difference. Trump won this district by 8.4%, so Lauren Boebert might be boosted with Trump on the ticket versus in 2022 when the top of the ticket was only the CO governor's race with a popular dem incumbent.
Texas 15th: Monica De La Cruz. This is a Trump +4.5% district, and the republican should win, but Biden may do much better with Latinos in 2024 than he did in 2020. Texas latino-heavy congressional districts are very unpredictable.
Florida 13th: Anna Paulina Luna: She was one of the Never-Kevins. Luna is a conspiratorial nut who self-describes as a "pro-life extremist." She also attended the screening of the movie 2000 Mules. So she's fucking nuts. Her district is in Tampa, which is a city Biden over-performed Hillary in, but the district went to Trump by 5.8%.
Florida 27th: Maria Salazar. This is a congressional district that has many different forces in play. Maria Salazar is a Spanish-language TV host who knocked off Donna Shalala in 2020 despite Biden winning the district by 3.1% (with old boundaries). Trump only won this district's new boundaries by 0.7%, but Florida might go even redder than in 2020. However, Cubans might really be bothered by Jan 6th and shift to Biden. This district is essentially the perfect mix of Florida's competing political pressures coming together in a single small area.
Possible mid-decade redistricting that could benefit democrats:
Wisconsin: At the moment, Wisconsin is extremely fucking gerrymandered - basically to the point where it's not really a democracy anymore. Biden won the state by 0.6%, but won only 2 out of 8 congressional districts. If the district boundaries stay the same, there are two republicans who are at low-but-not-none risk of losing their seats. In the Wisconsin 1st (Paul Ryan's old district), the republicans were forced to make the district bluer to keep their gerrymander, and Trump only won the new boundaries by 2.4%, versus 9.3% in the old boundaries. In the Wisconsin 3rd, Trump only won the district by 4.8%, unchanged from the old boundaries. Those margins are close enough that if Biden wins Wisconsin by 3-4% in 2024 rather than his <1% victory in 2020, it might carry along those two districts.
HOWEVER - there is a Supreme Court election in Wisconsin in 2023. A republican justice is retiring. If the democrats win that seat, they will hold control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court for the very first time in the post-Scott Walker era. Democrats will take that opportunity to sue the legislature, and change the district lines to be fair. The most likely result - the court will change the seats to have 2 strongly democratic seats, 3 strongly republican seats, and 3 competitive districts.
BIG CAVEAT TO THIS - If the Supreme Court rules in Moore v Harper that state constitutions (and by definition, the courts that interpret them), cannot prevent state legislatures from gerrymandering, then the Wisconsin Supreme Court will lose its power to stop the gerrymander.
BUT, CAVEAT TO THE CAVEAT - The Supreme Court cannot affect how a state court can overturn gerrymandering in state legislature districts, because the U.S. Constitution says nothing about this. So, the Wisconsin state court could overturn the state legislature districts, and if Biden wins in 2020 by a large enough margin, democrats might carry the state legislature (especially if incumbent republicans have new districts and don't know half of their new constituents), and then with a democratic governor (Evers), they could then change the district lines to make the map fair, and introduce ballot measures for Wisconites to vote on to make the US HOUSE district lines fairer.
BUT, CAVEAT TO THE CAVEAT OF THE ORIGINAL CAVEAT: Unless the Supreme Court allows state courts to rein in gerrymandering, any other scenario where democrats break the Wisconsin gerrymander would only take effect, at the earliest, in the 2026 house elections, and possibly not until 2030 redistricting.
Also, if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the Independent State Legislature Theory, it might also allow democrats in states like New York, California, Colorado, Maine, and Minnesota to gerrymander their House districts in response. If all of those states implemented aggressive Democratic gerrymanders, it would likely result in a pickup of between 9-12 seats for the Democrats. It's fighting fire with fire, but it may be necessary until a federal law or a more liberal court can outlaw partisan gerrymandering. Such a move might also give Biden an extra electoral vote in Maine. Conservatives on the Supreme Court may want to be careful with what they wish for.
Now for the democrats' vulnerabilities:
Very vulnerable democrats:
Alaska: Mary Peltola. Trump won this state by 10.5%.
Washington 3rd: Marie Perez. Trump won this district by 4.5%.
Ohio 9th: Marcy Kaptur. In the words of Dave Wasserman, "don't fuck with Marcy Kaptur." She is a menace of a campaigner, and she beat Dennis Kucinich after he tried to primary her in 2012. Her opponent was a man named J.R. Majewski, who was essentially the redneck version of George Santos. He completely fabricated his entire military backstory, but Marcy Kaptur, unlike the New York Dems, hired the big guns in oppo research and torched his sorry ass. However, Trump did win here by 2.8%.
Pennsylvania 7th: Susan Wild. Biden won this district by 0.6%.
Pennsylvania 8th: Matt Cartwright. Trump won this district by 2.9%.
That's it for the most vulnerable. This is why democrats are in better shape.
Somewhat vulnerable (but not in the danger zone) democrats:
Washington 8th: Kim Schrier. Biden won this district by 6.9%.
New Mexico 2nd: Gabe Vasquez. Biden won this district by 5.7%.
Colorado 8th. Yadira Caraveo. Biden won this district by 4.7%.
Texas 28th: Henry Cuellar. Biden won here by 7.8%, and Cuellar won by 14%. However, Cuellar is still at risk of losing his primary because he's a conservative anti-abortion piece of shit. If he is successfully primaried, this district may become competitive (but that might also be worth it to get rid of Cuellar, because he's fucking crooked and would be a "no" vote on codifying Roe).
Texas 34th: Vicente Gonzalez: Biden won this district by 15.7%. (This district really shouldn't be on the list, but Texas' latino districts are too fucking unpredictable to make this a sure thing)
Kansas 3rd: Sharice Davis. Biden won here by 4.5%.
Michigan 3rd: Hillary Scholten. Biden won here by 8.6%.
Michigan 7th: Elissa Slotkin. Biden won here by 0.9%.
Michigan 8th: Dan Kildee. Biden won here by 2.1%.
Ohio 1st: Greg Landsman. Republicans in the Ohio Legislature got greedy and tried to enlarge their gerrymander from 12-4 R to 13-2 R (Ohio lost a house seat in the census) instead of protecting their incumbents, and actually wound up LOSING seats, and this district became bluer, and democrats beat Steve Chabot, who had been in Congress since 1994! Biden won this district by 8.6%.
Ohio 13th: Emilia Sykes. Another one of Ohio Republicans' victims in getting too greedy in redistricting. Biden won here by 2.8%.
Maine 2nd: This is the Trumpiest district (other than Alaska) controlled by a democrat in the whole country. It went to Trump by 6.3% (and he got an electoral vote for winning it), but the democrat, Jared Golden, is very popular here, and has benefited from ranked-choice voting. He will probably win, but if republicans recruit a good candidate, then he might be in danger.
Pennsylvania 17th: Chris Deluzio. Biden won this district by 6.0%.
Possible mid-decade redistricting that could benefit republicans:
North Carolina. Right now, democrats have 7 seats in North Carolina, and the republicans have 7. Sounds pretty fair for a state that was +1% for Trump and only 3.5% R in the latest senate race. HOWEVER - the republican legislature is trying to get the Supreme Court to invalidate the state supreme court's ruling against a gerrymander, claiming that the state legislature has ultimate power over redistricting, and the state court has NO power. It may be too much of a stretch even for this SCOTUS to do this, but you never know. If SCOTUS rules in favor of the North Carolina Legislature, democrats may lose between 3-4 seats in North Carolina, because North Carolina is very easy to gerrymander due to the black-white division.
As you can see, democrats, despite having some vulnerability, are in a much better position to take the House. Especially given the fact that republicans will likely do the stupidest shit for the next 2 years, like impeaching half of Biden's cabinet, Kamala, and Biden himself (probably at least twice for payback, and a third time after he wins in 2024), democrats will have a field day going after front-line republicans who just won their elections (a lot of them only for the first time) promising to end inflation. It will be hard for them to defend themselves as working to work on the economy when they've impeached the entire Biden administration for no good reason and with no resulting convictions in the Senate. And keep in mind, this doesn't even factor in the possibility that the GOP blows up the economy by refusing to raise the debt limit. If they do, this list of vulnerable republicans might get some new visitors.
But, this is 2 years away. We'll just have to see what happens.
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