This is the result that democrats should be working towards, but any bad result in one or two Senate elections could derail this plan, making the fight for abortion rights at the state level crucial for the next decade. Abortion rights is winning - Kansas proved it in 2022 with its astounding rejection of an anti-abortion constitutional amendment. But in many states, the road is tougher than others. When we talk about "abortion rights," it can sometimes be unclear how far this "right" goes. Here at the Dash Files, and unlike Fox News, we are not afraid to say we are overtly partisan and will fully admit that we want democrats to win. We have clear policy objectives, and the 1st amendment gives us the right to have them. We think that while the ending of a pregnancy is an uncomfortable thing, often resulting from something very unhappy like rape or an inability to financially care for a child, and it should not be taken lightly -"abortion rights" means that a woman has the right to bodily autonomy and should have the full freedom to choose to have an abortion up until the point in which the fetus can survive outside the womb without extraordinary medical assistance (which is at about 24 weeks). And any woman needing an abortion after that point because of various circumstances such as the fetus is dead or unlikely to survive or the pregnancy is a risk to her life or her physical health should have the right to receive it. We also
We're going to list for you the most plausible path for abortion rights in all 50 states:
Alabama:
Abortion is fully banned in Alabama without exceptions for rape or incest. Republicans typically get about 60-65% of the vote here, and with the exception of Doug Jones' fluke victory in a 2017 special election against serial child groomer Roy Moore, it's near impossible for Democrats to win. Whites make up about 68% of Alabama, and about 90% of them vote republican - meaning that even if the state legislature's districts were no longer gerrymandered, democrats don't have a plausible chance of gaining control here.
Ballot measures can only be put forward to voters with the approval of the state legislature, meaning that abortion rights groups cannot pass an abortion rights law by bypassing the legislature.
The big picture: For abortion rights in Alabama to be restored, a national law or a Supreme Court case overturning Dobbs is required.
Alaska:
In 1997, the Alaska Supreme Court ruled that there is right to "reproductive choice" in the Alaska Constitution. The legislature is currently under a power-sharing agreement between Democrats and Republicans. While it is unlikely a law can be passed by the legislature to protect abortion rights, it is unlikely for the legislature to take action against abortion.
Alaska is also a state with an extremely libertarian culture, and its loyalties to republicans are more grounded in tax policy rather than social policy. 63% of its population support a right to abortion, and if abortion ever comes under threat, ballot measures can be initiated without the legislature's approval, and be placed on the ballot.
The big picture: Abortion rights in Alaska is not explicitly protected by statute, but its political culture and open ballot measure process means abortion is not threatened.
Arizona:
Abortion is currently banned at 15 weeks in the state of Arizona. While it just elected a Democrat as its governor, the state legislature remains barely in republican control with the help of partisan gerrymandering. While it is possible the state legislature could flip in 2024 if Joe Biden wins the state handily by 3-5%, such a result should not be viewed as likely.
However, voters can initiate ballot measures without the legislature's approval. Democrats used this to legalize marijuana in the 2020 election without the approval of the state's republican legislature and governor. In the 2023 or 2024 election, liberals can initiate a ballot measure similar to Michigan's 2022 Prop 3 that made abortion legal until viability. Such a ballot measure would likely pass, because ballot measures that codify abortion rights typically over-perform Democratic politicians on the ballot by about 5-15%. Because Arizona is essentially a 50-50 state, an abortion rights amendment would almost certainly pass.
The big picture: Abortion rights in Arizona are currently under attack, but are likely to be restored by a ballot measure in upcoming elections.
Arkansas:
Abortion is fully banned in Arkansas with no exceptions for rape or incest. Republicans typically get about 60-65% of the vote here, and the last time a democrat won statewide was 2010, and it hasn't even been remotely close in any election since then. Even if the gerrymandered legislature districts could be struck down, the state is too red to flip back in the near future.
However, ballot measures can be brought to a vote without the approval of the state legislature. Arkansas is one of the most socially conservative states, unfortunately, and an amendment like the one passed in Michigan, which would legalize abortion up to 24 weeks, would likely fail. Trump won here by 28 points in 2020, meaning that a we should expect a broad and sweeping reproductive rights bill to lose by 13-23 points. But, even many republicans in Arkansas support limited rights to abortion. 74% of people in the state said they support the right to end a pregnancy if it's no longer viable, and 78% support the right to end it if the woman's life is in danger. It is very possible that a bill legalizing abortion during the first trimester (12 weeks) and protecting abortion rights in the case of rape, incest, and life or physical health of the mother after 12 weeks could pass in ruby-red Arkansas. While such a law is not the ideal, 88% of abortions occur within the first trimester. If protecting first-trimester abortions is the only thing that can be passed, I would rather protect the 88% and wait for reinforcements in the U.S. Congress or a liberal Supreme Court in the future than protect 0% with an unpassable ballot measure.
The big picture: Abortion rights in Arkansas can be partially restored through a ballot measure, but a national law or a Supreme Court case overturning Dobbs is likely required to fully restore it due to the states' conservative electorate.
California:
Abortion is legal in California, and the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor. In 2022, the voters of the state overwhelmingly passed Prop 1, which enshrined the full right to abortion.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Colorado:
Abortion is legal in Colorado, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Connecticut:
Abortion is legal in Connecticut, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Delaware:
Abortion is legal in Delaware, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Florida:
During Ron DeSantis' first term as the governor of Florida, he helped pass a 15-week ban on abortion that is now the law of the land in Florida due to the Dobbs decision. Because he is very likely to run for President, he may decide to pass a stricter law on abortion, but he has been very evasive on the question, as I have explained in multiple articles here on the Dash Files. He has likely three choices: Ban abortion entirely, ban it at six weeks, or keep the 15-week ban.
Ballot measures can be initiated without the approval of the state legislature, but abortion rights runs into a bit of a roadblock because in 2006, Florida voters approved a ballot measure that requires 60% of voters to vote "yes" on a ballot measure for it to pass. It is unlikely that a ballot measure restoring the full right to reproductive freedom could actually pass by a 20-point margin in a state Trump won by 3 points in 2020. Unfortunately, a ballot measure that could get 60% of Floridians to vote yes would need to be limited so much (like saying abortion is legal up to 12 weeks) that it would be pointless to pass when the current law in Florida allows abortion up to 15 weeks. If Ron DeSantis does choose to limit abortion even more, then such a ballot measure would become more relevant, but we are yet to hear about an abortion ban in the works.
If we want the full restoration of abortion rights in Florida, abortion rights groups likely need to tee up a vote on a ballot measure lowering the requirement back down to 50%. If that measure passed, then abortion rights groups in Florida could then pass a ballot measure restoring abortion rights with full Roe protections.
The big picture: Abortion rights in Florida are under attack, and are very complicated to restore. It's technically plausible for a full restoration to happen without Congress, but it requires the electoral stars to align.
Georgia:
The current two-term governor of Georgia helped pass a 6-week abortion ban during his first term in office, and it is currently the law of the land in Georgia. Ballot measures cannot be initiated without the approval of the state legislature, meaning that democrats need to take control of the legislature to change the abortion laws if Congress or a more liberal Supreme Court does not act.
Passing a constitutional amendment to protect the abortion laws in Georgia is near-impossible, because Article X of the Georgia Constitution requires 2/3 of both legislative chambers to agree. However, if democrats can take over both the governorship and the legislature, then it becomes possible to pass a basic statute restoring abortion rights. For democrats to take control of Georgia requires a top-down takeover, meaning that you start with statewide offices and work your way down. The legislature is very gerrymandered, making it difficult for democrats to win control of the state House or Senate. However, if Georgia continues its trend towards becoming bluer and bluer, they might have a shot. Brian Kemp, the current governor of Georgia has already won twice, making him term-limited in the 2026 election. If Democrats can win the open race Georgia governorship in 2026, and the incumbent Democratic governor could win re-election in 2030, it would stop the Georgia GOP from gerrymandering the state again after the 2030 census because state legislative maps are subject to the governor's veto. If democrats lose the governorship in 2026, they could still have a chance at defeating an incumbent republican governor in 2030, but it would be much more difficult. Once democrats can un-gerrymander the state legislature in Georgia, they can win both chambers and then repeal the 6-week ban on abortion with the signature of a Democratic governor.
The big picture: For abortion rights in Georgia to be restored, Democrats must take over the entire state government.
Hawaii:
Abortion is legal in Hawaii, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Idaho:
Abortion is illegal in Idaho without exceptions for rape or incest. The state has been so deeply red for generations that even in 1964, when President Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater in a landslide, Johnson only won Idaho by about 5,000 votes, or 1.8%. Idaho was Lyndon Johnson's weakest state where he won. Since after Harry Truman's victory in then-swing-state Idaho in 1948, no democrat has cracked just 40% of the vote in Idaho other than John Kennedy's 52-46% loss in 1960, and Lyndon Johnson's 1-point victory. Trump won in Idaho by 31 points in 2020, so it should be considered impossible for democrats to take control of Idaho anytime soon.
Ballot measures can be placed on the ballot without the approval of the state legislature in Idaho; this is how liberals were able to expand Medicaid in this deep-red state. Idaho is a very Trumpy state, and a full abortion rights measure might not pass in such a hostile place for Democrats, but it's also not impossible. Idaho is a more libertarian conservative state than a Christian conservative state like Arkansas. Some of these rural "leave me alone" voters might like a bill that protects the right to "reproductive choice and freedom." It might be worth it for liberals to start first with an abortion ballot measure that protects abortion at least during the first trimester, just to protect the 88% of women who get abortions in the first trimester, and then work on trying to pass an even bolder reproductive rights package later. Think of it as abortion-rights triage. Start with fixing laws in states like Idaho that ban abortion entirely, and then once you've fixed those issues, then work up to the full abortion-until-viability law.
The big picture: Abortion rights in Idaho can be partially restored through a ballot measure, but a national law or a Supreme Court case overturning Dobbs is likely required to fully restore it due to the states' conservative electorate.
Illinois:
Abortion is legal in Illinois, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Indiana:
The current law on the books in Indiana bans abortion entirely with some exceptions for rape and incest. However, the ban was blocked by a state court in Indiana, but the Indiana Supreme Court will issue a ruling on the law in the coming months. The outcome of the case is very up in the air.
No matter the outcome of the court case in Indiana, abortion will continue to be threatened in Indiana because of turnover in the state court, and Indiana is too red to be competitive for the governorship, and especially the legislature.
Ballot measures can only be put forward to voters with the approval of the state legislature, meaning that abortion rights groups cannot pass an abortion rights law by bypassing the legislature.
The big picture: The state Supreme Court of Indiana *might* protect abortion rights, but abortion will continue to be under attack in Indiana until Congress or a more liberal Supreme Court overturns Dobbs.
Iowa:
Iowa's abortion laws are quite complicated. In 2018, the Iowa Supreme Court, which was, at the time, controlled by mainstay liberals from the era of blue Iowa, ruled that there is a right to an abortion under the Iowa Constitution. However, as Iowa had trended red since the 2014 midterms, the Supreme Court of Iowa became more conservative, and it overturned the 2018 decision. Currently, a six-week ban is blocked, but still under litigation.
No matter the outcome of the court case in Iowa, abortion will continue to be threatened in the state. While the state is not extremely red, it is no longer the blue Iowa of the pre-Trump days. It should be considered extremely unlikely that democrats can retake the governorship or the legislature in Iowa anytime soon.
Ballot measures can only be put forward to voters with the approval of the state legislature, meaning that abortion rights groups cannot pass an abortion rights law by bypassing the legislature.
The big picture: Abortion might be partially protected in Iowa for some time, but it will continue to be under attack in Iowa until Congress or a more liberal Supreme Court overturns Dobbs.
Kansas:
Abortion is legal in Kansas up until 22 weeks. The Supreme Court, which despite the state's republican tilt, is actually quite liberal, and ruled in 2019 that there is a right to abortion in the state constitution. The state Supreme Court's liberal tilt has been helped by the fact that in 2002 and 2006, Kathleen Sibelius, who later became Obama's HHS Secretary (and the lead respondent in the famous 5-4 Supreme Court case of NFIB v. Sibelius when Justice Roberts voted to uphold the Affordable Care Act), won the Kansas governorship twice. And in 2018 and 2022, democrat Laura Kelly won the Kansas governorship. The governor of Kansas is the person who appoints the judges on the Kansas Supreme Court, so that is why the court has a 5-2 liberal majority.
In 2022, red Kansas dropped a bomb on the political universe by voting down a constitutional amendment that would have stated that there is no right to abortion by a 60-40% margin. As long as the Supreme Court of Kansas stays liberal, abortion rights will be safe in Kansas. However, voters in Kansas cannot initiate ballot measures without approval of the legislature, meaning that if the state court turns conservative, there is nothing liberals can do unless democrats take control of the Kansas legislature.
The big picture: Abortion rights in Kansas are likely not under threat for the next decade, but it is not going to be fully safe unless the state turns blue (which is possible if the metro areas in East Kansas continue to grow), or if Congress acts, or a more liberal U.S. Supreme Court overturns Dobbs.
Kentucky:
Abortion is banned without exceptions for rape and incest in Kentucky. While the state has a Democratic governor, the republicans have veto-proof majorities in the state legislature. While the voters in Kentucky voted down a ballot measure initiated by the state legislature that would have amended the state constitution to say there is no right to abortion, the Supreme Court of Kentucky upheld the abortion ban.
Voters cannot initiate ballot measures without the approval of the legislature, and the state is so red, that it is near-impossible for abortion rights to be restored in Kentucky without something happening nationally.
The big picture: For abortion rights in Alabama to be restored, a national law or a Supreme Court case overturning Dobbs is required.
Louisiana:
Abortion is banned without exceptions for rape and incest in Louisiana. While the state has a Democratic governor, he is vehemently anti-abortion, and the GOP-controlled legislature wouldn't budge even if he was pro-abortion rights. The state is so red that it is not plausible for democrats to retake the state government in the near-future.
Ballot measures can only be put forward to voters with the approval of the state legislature, meaning that abortion rights groups cannot pass an abortion rights law by bypassing the legislature.
The big picture: For abortion rights in Louisiana to be restored, a national law or a Supreme Court case overturning Dobbs is required.
Maine:
Abortion is legal in Maine, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Maryland:
Abortion is legal in Maryland, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Massachusetts:
Abortion is legal in Massachusetts, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Michigan:
In the days after Dobbs, abortion was illegal in Michigan, but the Supreme Court of Michigan blocked the abortion ban. Then in the 2022 midterms, Proposition 3 codified the full right to abortion in the state constitution of Michigan, and Democrats took full control of the state legislature.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Minnesota:
Abortion is legal in Minnesota, and the democrats recently took full control of the state government in the 2022 midterms.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Mississippi:
Abortion is illegal in Mississippi without exceptions for rape or incest.
However, ballot measures can be brought to a vote without the approval of the state legislature. Mississippi is one of the most socially conservative states, unfortunately, and an amendment like the one passed in Michigan, which would legalize abortion up to 24 weeks, would likely fail. Trump won here by 16 points in 2020, meaning that a we should expect a broad and sweeping reproductive rights bill to lose by 1-11 points. But that's a very close margin, and it is also very possible that a bill legalizing abortion during the first trimester (12 weeks) and protecting abortion rights in the case of rape, incest, and life or physical health of the mother after 12 weeks could pass in Mississippi. While such a law is not the ideal, 88% of abortions occur within the first trimester. If protecting first-trimester abortions is the only thing that can be passed, I would rather protect the 88% and wait for reinforcements in the U.S. Congress or a liberal Supreme Court in the future than protect 0% with an unpassable ballot measure.
The big picture: Abortion rights in Mississippi can be partially restored through a ballot measure, but restoring it entirely will be a difficult (but not impossible) hill to climb in a referendum with the state's voters.
Missouri:
Abortion is illegal in Missouri without exceptions for rape or incest.
However, ballot measures can be brought to a vote without the approval of the state legislature. Missouri is a somewhat socially conservative state and an amendment like the one passed in Michigan, which would legalize abortion up to 24 weeks, could possibly pass in the state, but it would be very difficult. Trump won here by 15 points in 2020, but the state has many urban liberals in eastern Missouri. We should expect a broad and sweeping reproductive rights bill to have a result ranging from a close ttie to a 10 point-loss. But that's a very close margin, and it is also very possible that a bill legalizing abortion during the first trimester (12 weeks) and protecting abortion rights in the case of rape, incest, and life or physical health of the mother after 12 weeks could pass in Missouri.
The big picture: Abortion rights in Missouri can be partially restored through a ballot measure, but restoring it entirely will be a difficult (but not impossible) hill to climb in a referendum with the state's voters.
Montana:
The GOP-controlled legislature has passed multiple anti-abortion bills, but the Montana Supreme Court has recognized the right to an abortion under the constitution of Montana. Justices of the Supreme Court of Montana are elected in non-partisan elections, which means that while the state may have more republicans than democrats, the state has a very strong libertarian/individual rights streak in its culture. In fact, this culture is so pervasive in Montana that the state Constitution explicitly says, "[t]he right of individual privacy is essential to the well-being of a free society and shall not be infringed without the showing of a compelling state interest." Many voters who may select the candidate with an R next to their name might select justices who support strong interpretation of privacy.
Ballot measures can be initiated by the voters without the approval of the legislature, so if the abortion laws change in Montana, liberals can stop an attack on abortion rights even if they don't control the levers of power. In 2022, voters in Montana voted down an anti-abortion constitutional amendment, making it clear that the voters are not keen on infringing upon personal liberty.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Nebraska:
Nebraska has one of the most unique state governments in the United States. It has only one chamber of the legislature, and its members are elected without any party affiliation. The state of Nebraska is very conservative in the "small government" sense, but not as much in the social conservative sense. Without a D or an R next to the names of candidates, it is more difficult for the anti-abortion movement to control the conservatives in the legislature.
Currently, abortion is legal in Nebraska, and when Pete Ricketts (who was governor of Nebraska until a month ago, when he left office and was appointed to the U.S. Senate) introduced an abortion ban to the legislature, it failed. The new governor, Jim Pillen - and his allies in the legislature - are trying to pass a ban this year, but its prospects are unclear.
If abortion rights does go down in Nebraska, liberals can go to a Plan B - ballot measures can be initiated by the voters without the approval of the legislature. But Nebraska is fairly red, so it might be difficult to get such a measure passed.
The big picture: Abortion rights in Nebraska is on a knife's edge, but voters can have the final say in a ballot measure if neccessary.
Nevada:
Nevada has a Democratic legislature and a Republican governor. In 1990, Nevada voters codified the right to abortion in the state Constitution, so even if republicans take over the state government, there is not much they could do to threaten abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
New Hampshire:
New Hampshire has a Republican legislature and a pro-choice Republican governor. However, the state's electorate is extremely in favor of individual liberty, and there is no chance that republicans in the state would risk angering their voters with an abortion ban.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
New Jersey:
Abortion is legal in New Jersey, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
New Mexico:
Abortion is legal in New Mexico, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
New York:
Abortion is legal in New York, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
North Carolina:
Abortion is currently banned at 20 weeks of pregnancy. The democrats controlled the state Supreme Court, but in 2022, republicans won it back. The republicans control the legislature, but not with a veto-proof majority that can override the Democratic governor.
However, ballot initiatives cannot be initiated by the voters - it can only be by the legislature. Unfortunately, it is near-impossible for democrats to take back the legislature because of a law that allows the state legislature to override the governor's veto of a congressional district map with a simple majority. Essentially, this means that even if democrats control the governorship during a redistricting year, they can't stop republican gerrymanders in the state. While democrats could conceivably hold onto the governorship indefinitely and stop a stronger abortion ban from passing the legislature, it shouldn't be expected, especially because the state's gubernatorial elections coincide with presidential elections, heavily polarizing the electoral environment.
The big picture: For abortion rights in North Carolina to be fully restored, democrats need to retake the North Carolina Supreme Court, or a national law or a Supreme Court case overturning Dobbs is required.
North Dakota:
The current law on the books in North Dakota bans abortion entirely. However, the ban was blocked by a state judge, but the North Dakota Supreme Court will issue a ruling on the law in the coming months. The outcome of the case is very up in the air.
No matter the outcome of the court case in North Dakota, abortion will continue to be threatened in the state because of turnover in the state court, and North Dakota is too red to be competitive for the governorship, and especially the legislature.
However, ballot measures can be put forward to voters without the approval of the state legislature, meaning that abortion rights groups can pass an abortion rights law by bypassing the legislature. However, North Dakota is one of the reddest states, making it an uphill battle.
The big picture: The state Supreme Court of North Dakota *might* protect abortion rights, but if it doesn't, a ballot initiative can be taken to the voters to stop a ban.
Ohio:
The current law on the books in Ohio bans abortion until 6 weeks of pregnancy. However, the law has been blocked in state courts. The republicans just retook control of the Ohio Supreme Court, and the ban might be reinstated.
Ohio has become too red for democrats to have a real shot at winning control of the state government, but voters can initiate ballot measures without the approval of the legislature. Republicans in Ohio realized that the open ballot measure process presented a threat to their abortion ban, so they recently tried to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot in Ohio that would have required 60% of voters to vote yes to approve amendments. However, they missed the deadline, and abortion rights groups are about to put a reproductive freedom amendment on the 2023 ballot that will only require 50% of voters to approve it.
The big picture: Abortion rights in Ohio are currently under attack, but are likely to be restored by a ballot measure in upcoming elections.
Oklahoma:
Abortion is currently banned in Oklahoma without exceptions for rape or incest. The state is one of the reddest in the country - Joe Biden didn't even win a single county in Oklahoma - so it is implausible that democrats could ever take control of the state government.
The state allows for ballot measures to be initiated without the approval of the legislature. In fact, this was how Oklahoma expanded Medicaid in 2020, with the vote for expansion winning by just 0.98%. Unfortunately, Oklahoma has a reputation as being the "buckle" of the Bible Belt; it is one of the most socially conservative states in America, if not #1. Passing a ballot measure like Prop 3 in Michigan that would establish full reproductive freedom and abortion rights up to 24 weeks probably can't pass. The best way to at least mitigate the problem in Oklahoma is to introduce a ballot measure that legalizes abortion up to 12 weeks and protects post-12 week abortions if they are from rape, incest, or threaten the life or physical health of the mother. It's not the ideal solution, but it's better than nothing.
The big picture: Abortion rights in Oklahoma can be partially restored through a ballot measure, but a national law or a Supreme Court case overturning Dobbs is likely required to fully restore it due to the states' conservative electorate.
Oregon:
Abortion is legal in Oregon, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Pennsylvania:
Abortion is currently legal in Pennsylvania through viability. However, there are no laws that explicitly protect abortion rights. In 2014, democrats won the Pennsylvania governorship and have not lost it since, and in the 2022 elections, they won back the state House after the republicans' gerrymandering effort was defeated.
Unfortunately, ballot measures cannot be initiated by the voters without approval of the legislature, meaning that if republicans ever won back full control of the state (the last time they had full control was after the 2012 election), they could pass an anti-abortion bill. In 2022, the state Senate only had half of its seats up for election, meaning that in 2024, an entirely new batch of seats will be up for grabs. If Joe Biden can win Pennsylvania by a sizable 3-5% in the 2024 election, he might carry democrats to a Senate majority in Pennsylvania. If democrats can take full control of Pennsylvania in 2024, they can propose constitutional amendments to protect abortion rights. In Pennsylvania, an amendment can be placed on the ballot if a simple majority of both houses agree to it, but they must do it twice in two consecutive sessions of the legislature. This would mean that in 2026, the democrats would need to hold on to both houses of the legislature, despite the distinct possibility of having a Democrat in the White House during a midterm election. While it is unlikely that abortion rights can be seriously threatened in Pennsylvania - there are other safe guards such as the state's court system - democrats should always assume that one day they will lose an election - you don't know when that day will be, but it's inevitable in a free democracy that you can't win every time - and when that day comes, you don't want the republicans to be able to do whatever they want.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened at the moment, but the state is too swingy to be complacent. If democrats can win and keep control of both houses of the legislature in the 2024 and 2026 elections, abortion will be protected for good.
Rhode Island:
Abortion is legal in Rhode Island, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
South Carolina:
Despite being a conservative state, the Supreme Court of South Carolina struck down a law banning abortion at 6 weeks of pregnancy. Abortion is legal up until 22 weeks, and will likely stay that way for some time, but turnover in the high court could change the ideological mean of its justices. While South Carolina has been somewhat close in presidential elections - Joe Biden lost here by 13 points, which is not horrible, the electorate is so heavily polarized between white people who vote >80% Republican and black people that vote 90% Democratic. While the state may not be as red as Wyoming or Arkansas, it's still not very plausible for democrats to take over the state any time soon.
The big picture: Abortion is protected for now in South Carolina, but that all rests on the state Supreme Court continuing to strike down new abortion laws. The only plausible path for abortion rights to be truly safe in South Carolina is for a national law or a more liberal Supreme Court to overturn Dobbs.
South Dakota:
Abortion is illegal in South Dakota without exceptions for rape or incest, and is one of the reddest states in the country. Democrats will not be winning a majority of legislative seats in the state anytime soon.
However, ballot measures can be brought to a vote without the approval of the state legislature. South Dakota is conservative, but also has a libertarian, individual rights streak in its political culture. The passage of a full reproductive rights package is not as assured to pass as it would be in a state like Michigan. It may be wise for liberals to start with something that at least stops the bleeding by legalizing abortion through the first trimester, and protecting the rights of pregnant women to receive them after that point in the case of rape, incest, or life and physical health of the mother. It's not an ideal law, but it would probably pass in ruby-red South Dakota. After it passes, then they could try for a bolder abortion-until-viability package.
The big picture: Abortion rights in South Dakota can be partially restored through a ballot measure, but restoring it entirely will be a difficult (but not impossible) hill to climb in a referendum with the state's voters.
Tennessee:
Abortion is fully banned in Tennessee without exceptions for rape or incest. Republicans typically get about 60-65% of the vote here, and the democrats haven't won a senate seat here since Al Gore's re-election in 1990, and they haven't won the governorship since 2006. It's not plausible for the democrats to reclaim control of the state government in Tennessee any time soon.
Ballot measures can only be put forward to voters with the approval of the state legislature, meaning that abortion rights groups cannot pass an abortion rights law by bypassing the legislature.
The big picture: For abortion rights in Tennessee to be restored, a national law or a Supreme Court case overturning Dobbs is required.
Texas:
Abortion is fully banned in Texas without exceptions for rape or incest. While still a red state, Texas has been getting closer and closer in each election since 2012, and Democrats are within striking distance of taking control within the next decade. However, ballot measures cannot be initiated without the approval of the legislature, meaning that democrats must take full control of the state government to change the law.
In order for democrats to take over the Texas state government, a lot of moving pieces have to come together. The state is currently under a heavy republican gerrymander that makes it very difficult for democrats to take control of the state House, and even more difficult to have a chance in the state Senate. In 2030, Texas will redraw its congressional districts, giving democrats the opportunity to break the republican filibuster. However, it is not as simple for democrats as just picking off the governorship and vetoing a redistricting plan, because Texas provides a "backup commission" to redraw the lines if the legislature can't get it done. This commission consists of five members: The Lieutenant Governor, The Speaker of the House, the Attorney General, the Comptroller, and the Land Commissioner. This means that by the 2030 election cycle, the democrats must win control over at least one branch of elected government in Texas, the state House, the state Senate, or the governorship. If they can win all three, it would solve the issue, but gerrymandering makes this proposition unlikely. Their best shot is the governorship. In addition to winning at least one of the three moving pieces, they must also win three out of those five offices I listed above. Four out of five of those offices are elected by a direct statewide popular vote simultaneously with the governorship, meaning that democrats can sweep those offices all in one election. If all these stars align, then democrats can repeal the Republican gerrymander of the state, and have the opportunity to win both houses of the legislature in 2032, when state law requires that all seats in both Houses must be up for election because of redistricting. Then they can repeal the GOP's abortion law and start proposing constitutional amendments to protect reproductive rights.
The big picture: For abortion rights in Texas to be restored, Democrats must take over the entire state government.
Utah:
Abortion is currently banned in Utah after 18 weeks of pregnancy, but a law banning abortion entirely (with the rape and incest exception) is currently under litigation. It is unclear how the Utah Supreme Court will rule on the full ban, but liberals cannot count on the Utah high court to protect abortion. Utah is, historically and presently, one of the reddest states in America, and it is implausible that democrats could possibly win control of the state government.
Ballot measures can be introduced without the approval of the state legislature, but the state is a majority-mormon state, making a reproductive rights bill difficult to pass. It should not be written off as impossible, but Utah women will likely need reinforcements from Washington, DC.
The big picture: Abortion rights are not totally destroyed, but an 18 week ban is not acceptable. For abortion rights in Texas to be fully restored, it would require a surprise victory in a majority-mormon state, or for a national law or a more liberal Supreme Court to overturn Dobbs.
Vermont:
Vermont has a Democratic legislature, a pro-choice republican governor, and in 2022, the state passed a constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion with over 70% of the vote.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
Virginia:
Abortion is currently legal in Virginia, but the state has a Republican governor and a Republican state house; however, the Democrats control the state Senate. Virginia is a blue state, and Republican Glenn Youngkin's 2021 victory in the election for governor that also carried republicans into control of the Virginia House of Representatives should be seen as a fluke. The democrats only had a one-seat majority in the state Senate for the last year, and one of their members was questionable on the issue of abortion. Glenn Youngkin and the state GOP saw this as an opportinity to pass an abortion ban, but they recently ran into a roadblock. A state senator named Jen Higgins defeated incumbent Democrat Elaine Luria in the 2nd district of Virginia for the U.S. House, which meant she had to vacate her seat. A Democrat won the special election for that seat by a 0.9% margin, meaning that Democrats now have a 2-seat majority in the Virginia Senate. Youngkin's abortion bill is now dead on arrival, and his attempt to ban abortion has caused Virginia republicans to hemorrhage their political capital. In 2023, all 100 members of the Virginia House of Delegates will be up for re-election, and democrats only need to pick up 3 seats to regain control of the chamber.
To propose constitutional amendments, the legislature must approve it by a simple majority in two consecutive sessions of the legislature. If democrats can win back total control of the Virginia Legislature in 2023, and hold onto control in 2025 (which will be a tough fight if a Democrat is in the White House), a constitutional amendment protecting reproductive freedom can be placed on the ballot in the 2026 election, and abortion rights can be protected from another fluke victory by the GOP in Virginia.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened, but steps must be taken to ensure it can't be taken away by one crazy off-year election result.
Washington:
Abortion is legal in Washington, the state has a Democratic legislature and a Democratic governor, and the voters of the state overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
The big picture: The right to abortion is not threatened.
West Virginia:
Abortion is fully banned in West Virginia without exceptions for rape or incest. Republicans typically get about 65-70% of the vote here, and unless your name is Joe Manchin, you're more likely to make the cut for an MLB team than win as a Democrat in this state.
Ballot measures can only be put forward to voters with the approval of the state legislature, meaning that abortion rights groups cannot pass an abortion rights law by bypassing the legislature.
The big picture: For abortion rights in West Virginia to be restored, a national law or a Supreme Court case overturning Dobbs is required.
Wisconsin:
Abortion is fully banned in Wisconsin without exceptions for rape or incest. The legislature is so gerrymandered in favor of the republicans that if Wisconsin were its own country, it could not be considered a democracy. Ballot measures cannot be initiated without the approval of the legislature.
But there is a massive opportunity for democrats to wrestle back control of Wisconsin that we have talked about in previous articles here on the Dash Files. Last night, Wisconsin held its primary election for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which is being vacated by a conservative justice. The two liberals received a combined 54% of the vote, and the two conservatives received 46% of the vote - a great sign for liberals here. If the liberal candidate who advanced - Janet Protasiewicz - can beat conservative candidate Daniel Kelly, liberals will hold a 4-3 majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. They will then likely strike down the 1849 abortion ban, and strike down the gerrymandered election maps for the state legislature. That will give Democrats an opportunity to permanently protect abortion rights in Wisconsin, because they will finally have a shot at winning control of the state legislature in 2024. If Joe Biden can win Wisconsin by 3-5%, Democrats can do it. In order to protect abortion rights through a constitutional amendment, it must be passed by a simple majority of the state legislature in two consecutive sessions, meaning that Democrats, after winning control in 2024, must hold onto control in the 2026 midterm elections. Then, they could bring the amendment to a full vote by Wisconsinites in the 2028 election, and protect the right to reproductive freedom in Wisconsin for good.
The big picture: Abortion rights in Wisconsin are currently under attack, but there is a plausible opportunity for it to be restored in the near future.
Wyoming:
Wyoming republicans passed a trigger ban on abortion in March of 2022, but a Wyoming state judge placed an indefinite injunction on the law, and the Wyoming Supreme Court refused to take up the case. This should not be seen as the final outcome of abortion law in Wyoming; a new case could make it to the Wyoming high court with different legal arguments, and successfully reinstate the ban. Justices could die or retire. With Wyoming being the reddest state in America, liberals have no real control over this process.
However, Wyoming is a state that allows for ballot measures to be initiated without the legislature's approval, meaning that liberals could organize a fight against a ban with just voter opinion. Wyoming is conservative, but it also has a very libertarian streak. It is absolutely plausible that voters in Wyoming could pass a ballot measure protecting abortion, or at minimum, a right to privacy that could be used to protect abortion in their high court. It may be difficult to pass something like the ballot measure in Michigan, but it's worth a shot.
The big picture: Abortion rights in Wyoming is currently protected by the courts, but that may not last. It can be partially restored through a ballot measure, but restoring it entirely will be a difficult (but not impossible) hill to climb in a referendum with the state's voters.
As you can see, liberals have an amazing opportunity to protect abortion rights in a vast majority of states. Kansas proved that abortion rights, when placed alone on the ballot, can be a big winner, even with some conservatives. But many states have unjumpable hurdles to changing the law, meaning that there will come a fundamental limit in how far the abortion rights movement can go state-to-state without changes at the federal level. Even if all the stars align in places like Texas, Idaho, and South Dakota, abortion will stay illegal in Alabama, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia until something is passed by Congress.
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