This past week, Ron DeSantis continued to make national headlines, whether in the mainstream media, or sources on the left and right. After winning re-election as Florida Governor by a staggering 19 points and carrying his state party to a 2/3 supermajority in the state legislature, he now governs the state with an iron fist. Florida Democrats are in complete disarray, and have no leaders other than House members in Washington, and DeSantis' popularity and national influence has made the Florida Republican Party his own puppet. In the last 7 days, the Florida Legislature made headlines by authorizing DeSantis to complete his takeover of the previously autonomous area of DisneyWorld, and separately, giving him the power to unilaterally transport illegal immigrants to wherever he wants.
Alongside other parts of the Orwellian DeSantis agenda, such as the book bans and the harassment of gay teachers (especially those who are married), we can draw two macro conclusions:
First, anything that DeSantis wishes to be done will be passed by the Florida Legislature. How do I know this? Well, let me teleport you to Florida's political universe just over eight years ago. It's Election Day 2014, and incumbent Florida governor Rick Scott is teetering on the verge of electoral oblivion. This cycle, his opponent is the very popular former republican governor Charlie Crist, who has recently seen the light and become a Democrat. For months, Scott has been trailing in the polls, but starting in Mid-October, the cavalry reinforcements have arrived for Scott. Millions of corporate dollars are poured into Rick Scott's re-election campaign, with the main outlet being a Super-PAC called "Let's Get To Work." One of the primary sponsors: The biggest, baddest, meanest dude on the block: Disney. On Election Day, the race shows Scott losing by about 1 point. Sabato's Crystal Ball even rates the election as "Lean D." But in 2014, the polls were skewed in an overestimation of Democrats' support. Scott won by just 1 point, 48% to 47%, and in no short part to reinforcements from large corporations such as Disney. So before the Trump era, Rick Scott and all of his Republican (and some Democratic) friends in the legislature were owned by Disney; they owed their entire political careers to the corporation, and so they did what Disney told them to do. But after the rise of Trump, (and more importantly, TrumpISM) right-wing politicians like Ron DeSantis have been able to undercut the corporate-donation incentive structure and instead gain political influence and attention by serving fresh red meat to the republican base. So after Disney decided in 2021 to support LGBTQ Americans (to be clear, this does not make them civil rights heroes; they just wanted to improve their PR standing with America's gay-tolerant majority), Ron DeSantis rolled the once-corporate-owned legislature into punishing "woke" Disney. This should be proof alone that DeSantis has absolute, unchecked control of the Florida Legislature.
Second, Ron DeSantis wants to be President, and he only has one shot. Florida is a state with a deep historical distrust of the ambitions of its politicians, and because of this, in addition to a law requiring the incumbent governor to resign to run for President, the state has passed a two-term limit for its governors. DeSantis can get the Florida legislature to repeal the first law requiring him to resign, but here lies the crux of DeSantis' problem: On January 8, 2027, Ron DeSantis will no longer be the governor of Florida, because the Florida Constitution mandates that he cannot run for a third term. Not even his own puppet, the Florida Legislature, can change this fact. The only way Ron DeSantis could be governor for another four years would be for 60% of Floridians to vote in 2024 to abolish term limits from the Florida Constitution. Sorry Ron, but if only 60% of Floridans voted AGAINST abolishing term limits, it would be considered shockingly close. The problem for DeSantis is that he does not have Donald Trump's ability to garner attention through words, not action. Donald Trump is a master of the media because he can make headlines just from saying the most crazy, diabolical shit - like how he thinks Mexicans are a bunch of rapists. However, Ron DeSantis gets media attention because of the laws and policies he enacts as the Florida governor, whether it be his phony anti-vax investigations, or the book bans, or the Stop WOKE Act. But he's like a vacuum cleaner you plug into the wall: He's able to suck in all this media attention, but the moment you unplug the vacuum from its power source, it stops doing anything. The governorship is his power source, and the moment he's unplugged from it, it's all over. So if Ron DeSantis hasn't won the Presidency by 2024, his political future is toast. By 2028, someone else will be eating up all the oxygen on Fox News and every other circle of conservatives yearning for their next presidential candidate. Ron DeSantis will not get another opportunity to ascend to any higher office than being the governor of Florida. If he only has one opportunity, and that is playing out in the present time, then every action, or lack of action, that Ron DeSantis takes, must be viewed as his strategy for winning in 2024.
So here's where these two facts lead to the actual big point I'm trying to make in this article. If you take these two assertions; first, the legislature will do whatever Ron DeSantis wants, and second, everything DeSantis is doing is about 2024, then why has Ron DeSantis not passed an abortion ban? This is exactly what I was talking about a few weeks ago in a similar article I wrote on the subject - DeSantis is stuck in the mud and doesn't know how to position himself in the best angle on the issue of abortion. The mainstream media has been hypnotized in the last few weeks by financial movement against Trump on the right (Koch), but those elite donors do not care about the issue of abortion. They have been happy to placate to the religious right for years in order to get more conservatives elected from culturally conservative parts of the country whose voters would normally vote for economic progressives, but are convinced otherwise by their religion and their hatred of women. The Kochs are happy to get tax cuts from those socially conservative republicans, but they really couldn't care less about overturning Roe v. Wade. As long as those same conservative justices that Mitch McConnell helped get through the Senate are willing to uphold legalized bribery of our politicians, and slowly destroy every regulatory agency keeping a check on their greed, the fiscal conservatives are happy to marry themselves to the religious right. The problem for DeSantis, though, is that these same donors who have been making headlines by funding a primary campaign against Trump are also the people who allowed the crazy anti-abortion folks to have the keys to the GOP. And with Roe v. Wade overturned, the religious right is going to continue to flex its muscles. The anti-abortionists have been fairly quiet in recent months, especially after they took a bodyshot in the midterms, but they are a sleeping monster that is going to wake up very soon and begin its tirade in the Republican primary.
Abortion is going to likely be front-and-center in the next three months due to two things: First, Wisconsin's Supreme Court election is approaching fast, and if one of the two liberals wins that election, it is nearly a certainty that Wisconsin's abortion ban will be struck down. Second, it is very likely that one of the two abortion pills that has been on the market for 22 years will be banned due to a lawsuit in Amarillo that is being heard by a crazy right-wing federal judge appointed by Donald Trump. (Quick note: Essentially, if this abortion bill is banned, it will not be impossible to medically induce an abortion, but it will be much more painful for a woman to do so. The chemical name of the drug which is likely to be banned is called Mifepristone, but it is actually taken in combination with a chemical called Misoprostol. Mifepristone is the only chemical which will likely be banned, but not Misoprostol, because it has been a mainstay in the consumer market for years as a way to treat ulcers. The problem, however, is that in a normal world where abortion is safe and legal, Mifepristone is taken first, and used to cut off the embryo from its normal supply of hormones that maintain a stable uterus, and after the uterus is no longer stable, Misoprostol induces small contractions that induce the abortion without any real pain. If the first pill, Mifepristone, is banned, a woman can still induce an abortion by taking Misoprostol, but because the uterus has not been destabilized, the contractions are extremely painful and can sometimes even result in internal bleeding. It does the job, but no woman in a developed country like ours should need to go through it.)
With these two events occuring in the next 2-3 months, abortion is going to be back in the national conversation, and for Ron DeSantis, it will be his time for choosing. With his legislature's session ending in May and the first GOP debates likely happening in June, the anti-abortion movement is going to be calling him out by name. If DeSantis takes the opportunity to pass the abortion ban the pro-lifers want, he may finally have a chance to unite the financial and ideological power of the fiscal conservatives and the religious right to have a chance to beat the MAGA King in the primary. But in doing so, he will give Biden the best political weapon in the universe to destroy him in the general election, along with his conservative friends in Congress. And if DeSantis is too scared of losing the general election as a result of moving to the right on abortion, his political strength with the far-right will die. The religious right is going to soon take notice of this very important statistic:
There are 13 states in the "South" that are controlled completely by the Republican party either by both houses of the legislature and a GOP governor, or two-thirds GOP in both houses of the legislature. Here is the status of abortion in those 13 states:
Texas: (Abbott (R) + R House, R Senate) - Banned with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Oklahoma: (Stitt (R) + R House, R Senate) - Banned with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Missouri: (Parson (R) + R House, R Senate) - Banned with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Arkansas: (Huckabee Sanders (R) + R House, R Senate) - Banned with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Louisiana: (Edwards (Anti-abortion D) + 2/3 R House, 2/3 R Senate) - Banned with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Kentucky: (BeShear (D) + 2/3 R House, 2/3 R Senate) - Banned with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Tennessee: (Lee (R) + R House, R Senate) - Banned with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Mississippi: (Reeves (R) + R House, R Senate) - Banned with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Alabama: (Ivey (R) + R House, R Senate) - Banned with no exceptions for rape or incest.
West Virginia: (Justice (R) + R House, R Senate) - Banned with no exceptions for rape or incest.
South Carolina: (McMaster (R) + R House R Senate) - Banned at 6 weeks (but blocked by state courts).
Georgia: (Kemp (R) + R House, R Senate) - Banned at 6 weeks.
Florida: (DeSantis (R) + R House, R Senate) - Banned at 15 weeks.
So in the eyes of the anti-abortion movement, Ron DeSantis' Florida is the weakest state in the South on the issue of abortion. I would bet thousands of dollars that this will be unacceptable to the religious right. And come May, if DeSantis hasn't figured out a way to navigate this issue, groups like the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and Right to Life will take DeSantis' political career, douse it in rubbing alcohol, throw it in a dumpster filled with charcoal, and light it on fire. They may turn back to Trump, the man who helped overturn Roe v. Wade, or they may turn to Mike Pence, who despite the threats of hanging by the true crazies, is still quite popular with most republican voters.
And even if the anti-abortion movement can get their desired nominee, they will still have to face the 1,000 ton gorilla in the room named President Biden and his large pro-choice majority in the American electorate. I almost feel sorry for the anti-abortionists; it's a tough life being despised by the majority of the American public, and being 0-6 on ballot measures since the fall of Roe v. Wade.
Hey pro-lifers, take a look at the scoreboard - must suck to suck!
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